Level of understanding required: Intermediate
Disclaimer: these are completely my personal opinion. Please trade / invest at your own risk.
There is a clear breakout in Bank Nifty over the last few days. However there are two considerations here. There is a resistance at around 42658. Also, with such a spike, there are always chances of corrections.
All kinds of possibilities are there today. I cannot start with any bias in mind. I will personally wait for the market to open and wait for about 1 hour and check the price action, before taking any trades.
Also, below, have a look at the important banks which form the index. 3 private banks have a much higher break out vs the largest public sector bank in India, SBI. I would expect SBI to go up. 10% in short term is a possibility.
Post Market:
Phew, that was a bad day for me. I took two trades and lost out on both. I kept expecting the market to go down at two points and that's where I went wrong as the market kept rising in the first half.
See the chart below:
I noticed a flag and pole kind of formation and rushed into a short position with CE. I would have profited if the market went down. However, that didn't happen and the market went up at that point.
Instead, if I waited a bit and saw a clear break out (like what happened later), I would have profited.
Key learnings today:
Wait, wait, wait - I have to be more patient with the break outs. The aggressive movement of candle lured me into a trade where I should have waited.
Wait for clearer patterns and wait for confirmations. When the opportunity does come up to short, there will be some follow up candles. Wait for it.
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